Assessing the opportunity for pay-as-you-go solar in Pakistan

This study is the third of a series of four reports and focuses on the potential for mobile-enabled pay-as-you-go (PAYG) solar home systems (SHSs), to improve energy access in Pakistan. The findings demonstrate that, while the market for off-grid solar solutions is nascent, a few actors and investments are moving the market forward and exploring the potential for mobile technology to support the deployment at scale of PAYG solar solutions in Pakistan.

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In South Asia, approximately 20 per cent of the population lacks access to electricity (International energy Agency (IEA) data, 2014). In Pakistan alone, ~144 million people, or 77 per cent of the population either have no access to electricity or experience energy shortages of up to 12 hours a day. Most of the un-electrified population lives in peri-urban or rural areas (IEA data, 2014). In Punjab, where more than 60 per cent of total electricity is consumed, rural communities spend most of their fuel and lighting expenditures on decentralised energy sources such as agriculture biomass waste (32 per cent of their expenditures) and firewood (17 per cent of their expenditures). In contrast, mobile networks have become the predominant infrastructure, with 87 per cent of the population living within mobile coverage (GSMA Intelligence data, Q4 2014). Pakistan’s energy addressable market, defined as the number of people who have access to mobile coverage but do not have access to electricity, represents 29 million people (GSMA Mobile for Development Utilities data).

The rise of the solar home system market in South Asia, notably in Bangladesh and – to a lesser extent – India, coupled with the growth of the pay-as-you-go solar model, highlight the opportunity for this to be successfully deployed to respond to Pakistan’s un-electrified or unreliably electrified population’s needs.

In light of this opportunity, at the beginning of 2015, the GSMA Mobile for Development Utilities programme, with the support of the UK Government, began working with Etisalat to explore the opportunity for MNOs to partner with energy service providers in the deployment of PAYG solar home systems to improve energy access in Pakistan, while growing their off-grid customer base. This study focuses on PAYG Solar Home Systems and therefore does not discuss other decentralised energy models, such as mini-grid. The findings demonstrate that, while the market for mobile-enabled PAYG solar is nascent in Pakistan, the conditions are favourable for its growth and a few actors are leading the way, exploring the potential for mobile technology to support the deployment of these off-grid solutions.

Click here to read the study on the potential of PAYG solar in Pakistan, as well as our recommendations to MNOs, energy services providers and the government, to support the growth of the market.

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