This article is part of the Spectrum Policy Trends 2026 report. Download the report for a handy compilation of the top five spectrum policy trends for 2026.
Successive generations of mobile technology have played a central role in expanding connectivity, enabling digital transformation and supporting economic growth. As governments and industry look ahead to the 2030s, standardisation and spectrum policy will shape the next phase of mobile development, widely expected to be defined by 6G.
The World Radiocommunication Conference in 2027 (WRC-27) will have a significant impact on spectrum decisions for 6G. Its consideration of spectrum for International Mobile Telecommunications (IMT) and its potential to establish harmonised regulatory conditions will influence how effectively future mobile technologies can be deployed at scale.
In the lead-up to WRC-27, administrations are studying several frequency ranges for potential IMT identification, including the 4.5 GHz and the 6–8 GHz ranges. Further spectrum is being considered outside of the WRC framework such as the upper 3.5 GHz band. Together, these bands could provide significant additional capacity for 5G and future 6G networks and, if combined with new low-band spectrum in the 500-600 MHz bands, can help deliver widespread 6G connectivity.
Why does it matter?
Cities with over 50% of the world’s urban population will be capacity-constrained by 2030 if mid-band spectrum remains at today’s levels. For its evolution into the 2030s, mobile needs more spectrum capacity. 6G will use 200-400 MHz channels, harmonised as widely as possible. However, finding new bands is more challenging with each cycle as spectrum becomes more congested.
6G is expected to reach 2.1 billion connections by 2035, rising to 5 billion, or 54% market penetration, by 2040. Many of the most common applications of the 6G era are already starting to be used today – such as AI or XR – but 6G will be required to enhance these applications and supply the significant traffic increases. Data growth is still substantial, even in mature markets. In the US, traffic is doubling every two years while the UK recently announced an 18% increase in 2025 over the previous year.
What are the policy considerations?
More low-band spectrum is needed to cover wide areas with 6G while the amount of mid-band spectrum available will also need to be increased in all markets. Mid-band spectrum needs in 2035-2040 will vary according to market maturity and population density in the busiest areas, but the average figures will be:
A harmonised spectrum roadmap that delivers the total mid-band spectrum requirements should be developed to enable operators to meet these capacity demands from 2030. To meet this demand, regulators can seek to assign spectrum in 3.8–4.2 GHz and upper 6 GHz to mobile by around 2030 to meet demand and consider 4.4–4.99 GHz and 7–8 GHz beyond that. Demand for low bands will continue to exceed supply and new assignments are needed for digital equality between urban and rural areas.
By the 2030s, a new era of connectivity will carry its own spectrum requirements, and these bands will represent a potential resource for the next stage in mobile evolution.
What to expect in the year ahead?
Spectrum activity for the 2030s is gathering pace.
2026 will be the year when we start to see clear national and regional positions developing for the future of mobile spectrum. Two countries effectively jump‑started global momentum for the 7 GHz range while continuing to examine 4.5 GHz. The US, an early adopter, is likely to be the first to study the 7.125–7.4 GHz band after identifying it for mobile use, while India has also included the 7 GHz band in its medium‑term roadmap.
The ITU’s Working Party programme is moving towards its conclusions for this WRC cycle, and this will help define both how new bands can be used and how widely they are harmonised. Regional blocs such as the Arab Spectrum Management (ASMG), Asia-Pacific Telecommunity (APT) or their counterparts in other regions will begin to define their support for new mobile spectrum. This will keep industry busy as vendors continue development of products – both 5G Advanced and 6G – that have access to the new bands.
7 GHz mobile has now moved out of the laboratory and into the field. Decisions in the next 18 months will decide the extent of its use.
| Policy in practice: US and India start 7 GHz development Just before the end of 2025, two huge markets laid out the clearest plans yet that 7 GHz mobile was making progress. The early-adopting US market and the huge scale of India – itself increasingly seen as a 6G leader – have both brought this new band firmly into play. The list of potential support goes beyond these markets as well. In its December decision on 6 GHz, Europe’s RSPG laid out the possibility of expanding the upper 6 GHz range further into 7 GHz while Brazil has also shown interest. Regional blocs are considering the extent of their support in their own WRC process around the world which will become clearer in the next 12 months. The official announcements from the US and India were perhaps the most noticeable. India will move beyond its recent 6 GHz support to consider the 7 GHz and 4.5 GHz bands pending WRC decisions and has laid this out in its national frequency allocation plan. The US went even further with 7 GHz, with a presidential memorandum titled ‘Winning the 6G Race’ in December 2025. It tasked its NTIA agency to “immediately begin the process of identifying the band of spectrum frequencies at 7.125-7.4 GHz for reallocation for full-power commercial licensed use cases”. The US will continue studies of 2.7-2.9 GHz and 4.5 GHz, the former made possible by an upgrade programme for airport radar systems using the band. 4.5 GHz is used by government and military systems all over the world, but nowhere more so than the US. The feasibility study, to be carried out by NTIA, may prove a useful guide. |