The Global Mobile Trends flagship report, produced by GSMA Intelligence, the research arm of the GSMA, compiles data on mobile subscriber growth trends, mobile internet adoption, devices, and industry financials from both a global and regional perspective. The key megatrends covered in the report include:
Asia Becomes the Growth Engine of the Mobile Ecosystem
A further one billion people worldwide will be connected to mobile networks by 2020. Approximately a third of these new users will come from India, underlining the country’s position as the world’s most significant mobile growth market, overtaking China. China is forecast to add more than 200 million subscribers by 2020 and there will also be major net subscriber additions in Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Myanmar. The Asian market will account for approximately 60 per cent of the 1.1 billion new subscribers added globally by the end of the decade.
The mobile Internet is the Internet
New mobile subscribers are likely to be young and to be ‘mobile-first’ or ‘mobile-only’ Internet users. Today 46 per cent of the global population is using mobile phones to access the Internet, a figure that is set to increase to 60 per cent by 2020. The increase in mobile phone ownership will be the key factor driving global Internet penetration.
Smartphones are king – even in low-income markets
The study indicates that smartphones may now be the most commonly-owned consumer electronics device. In the UK, for example, 71 per cent of mobile-connected devices are smartphones. This compares to 60-70 per cent across the rest of Europe, 75 per cent in the US, and above 80 per cent in some Asian markets, such as South Korea and Singapore. Although the smartphone adoption rate in India stands at only 25 per cent, unit volumes are growing by 30 per cent a year. The study predicts that several low-income countries (with per capita GDP below $10,000) will have smartphone adoption rates of 60–70 per cent by 2020.
Shift in revenue towards platforms and content
Revenue from mobile services worldwide is forecast to grow by around 2 per cent annually through to 2020. Annual revenue from voice, SMS and mobile data combined is set to surpass $1.5 trillion by 2020. However, the revenue generated by these services will fall from 41 per cent of overall ecosystem revenues today to 38 per cent by 2025. By contrast, revenue from content services will increase from three per cent of ecosystem revenue today to 17 per cent by 2025.
Artificial intelligence is becoming the super enabler
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is emerging as the catalyst that will accelerate the development of a number of emerging sectors, including connected cars and smart homes. Personal assistants will be one of the early battlegrounds in AI. AI attracted $2.3 billion in venture capital last year and is also a major focus of current merger and acquisition activity.
The GSMA plans to publish the Global Mobile Trends report on an annual basis, providing insights on the mobile ecosystem that will help the industry identify future areas of growth and innovation. The 2016 edition is available here.