The evolution of data growth in Europe | Report by Arthur D. Little

Average household data consumption over telecommunication networks has steadily grownacross Europe. Measured in gigabytes (GB) per month per user (GB/month), consumption has increased from approximately 5 GB/month in 2018 to 15 GB/month in 2022, for a growth rate of 25%. We expect Europe’s mobile data consumption per user to continue growing
in the coming years, increasing from the 2022 level of approximately 15 GB/month to 75 GB/month by 2030, creating an annual growth rate of 25%. And we expect fixed data consumption per household to grow from the 2022 level of 225 GB/month to 900 GB/month by 2030, for an annual growth rate of 20%.

Overall monthly data consumption in gigabytes is determined by multiplying the amount of time spent online per day (measured in hours) by the data usage intensity of the applications used during that time (measured in GB/hour). The amount of time spent online appears to plateau at three to four hours a day for mobile (per individual) and six to 10 hours a day for fixed (per home). However, the data intensity of applications like videos and social networks is continuously increasing, which in turn drives up the hourly, and ultimately, the monthly data consumption.

Our data consumption forecast already includes all these expected trends. However, pushing the boundary of time spent per day using the most data-intensive applications could lead to extreme scenarios. For example, a household consuming 4K content for 12 hours a day would use 3,600 GB in one month. This scenario illustrates how technical leapfrogging of device capabilities and data hunger of applications may generate faster, more excessive data growth, which would affect underlying
network investment requirements and their ability to ensure value and enable full experiences.

In the future, a number of trends will contribute to the data intensity of some use cases, boosting overall data consumption:

• Improved video resolution from standard definition (SD) to high definition (HD).
• High-definition 4K and 8K.
• Higher consumption of HD live sports, especially on mobile handsets.
• Increased use of short-form video on social networks.
• The “metaversization” of use cases — watching videos, meeting people, attending concerts, and shopping.
• The use of augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR).
• Artificial intelligence (AI)-generated content.

Many publications report periodically on the growth of average data consumption (mostly focused on mobile), analyzing the differences between high-growth and lowgrowth markets. These reports provide a clear snapshot of the current state of data consumption and short- to medium-term forecasts. However, in this Report we delve deeper, analyzing the underlying demand-side factors that constitute actual data consumption as well as the supplyside factors that either constrain or fuel data consumption. We review both the mobile and the fixed side of these phenomena in order to forecast average data consumption between now and 2030.